WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
global GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
figure 5.8: global: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario
figure 5.9: global: change in cumulative power plant investment 40,000
REF 2011 - 2050
key results |
35,000
6%
30,000
CHP
25,000
17%
20,000
NUCLEAR
GLOBAL - INVESTMENT
US$ billion
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
Total $ 22,191 billion 45%
15,000 10,000 5,000 0
RENEWABLES
-5,000
32%
FOSSIL
-10,000 -15,000 2011-2020
E[R] 2011 - 2050
••
5% FOSSIL 10% CHP
2021-2030
2031-2040
2041-2050
2011-2050
FOSSIL & NUCLEAR E[R] VS REF RENEWABLE E[R] VS REF
Because renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of about $ 52,800 billion up to 2050, or $ 1,320 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover two times the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario. These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies.
Total $ 50,401 billion
85% RENEWABLES
table 5.2: global: investment costs for electricity generation and fuel cost savings under the energy [r]evolution scenario compared to the reference scenario INVESTMENT COSTS
$
2011 - 2020
2021 - 2030
2031 - 2040
2041 - 2050
2011 - 2050
2011 - 2050 AVERAGE PER ANNUM
Conventional (fossil & nuclear)
billion $
-1,780
-2,310
-2,108
Renewables
billion $
4,596
8,087
10,896
-2,108
-8,508
-213
10,896
36,720
918
Total
billion $
2,816
5,777
8,788
8,788
28,213
705
DIFFERENCE E[R] VERSUS REF
CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGS SAVINGS CUMULATIVE E[R] VERSUS REF
Fuel oil
billion $/a
304
1,088
1,252
1,107
3,750
94
Gas
billion $/a
-209.1
1,837
7,731
16,886
26,244
656
Hard coal
billion $/a
625
3,152
7,155
11,140
22,072
552
Lignite
billion $/a
42
185
245
259
731
18
Total
billion $/a
762
6,262
16,382
29,390
52,797
1,320
80