WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
oecd europe: energy demand by sector
5
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
key results | OECD EUROPE - DEMAND
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.47). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 8,921 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
The future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.44 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD Europe increases by 9% from the current 75,200 PJ/a to 82,080 PJ/a in 2050. The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 36% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 47,800 PJ/a. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 5.45). Because of the growing shares of electric vehicles, heat pumps and hydrogen generation however, electricity demand increases to 3,470 TWh/a in 2050, still 21% below the Reference case.
figure 5.44: oecd europe: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
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10,000
PJ/a 0 REF
E[R] 2009
108
REF
E[R] 2015
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E[R] 2020
REF
E[R] 2030
REF
E[R] 2040
REF
E[R] 2050
‘EFFICIENCY’ OTHER SECTORS INDUSTRY TRANSPORT