WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
ㄾ⤉ ➊❌ ⾝⌜âŽ?⸴ ㄉ ㄾ⤉ ❎â†âłšâłŚ
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
65 23 0.9 15 5.6 0 18 0.1 1.6 0.4 0.5 0 0 0
82 23 1.0 15 5.9 0 25 0.3 1.7 2.0 7.2 0 0 0.3
100 25 1.0 18 5.8 0 31 0.5 1.7 3.8 12 0.03 0 0.4
133 26 1.0 17 5.7 0 42 0.6 1.8 12 26 0.1 0 0.7
141 20 1.0 12 5.6 0 50 0.6 1.9 16 32 0.1 0 0.9
145 15 1.0 11 5.7 0 57 0.6 2.0 17 35 0.2 0 1.0
66 2.5 0.3 52 6.0 4.4 0 0
Combined heat & power production 8.1 0.7 Coal 0.14 Lignite 5.8 Gas 1.4 Oil 0.0 Biomass 0 Geothermal 0 Hydrogen
9.7 0.7 0.06 7.3 1.6 0.1 0 0
10.6 0.7 0.06 8.0 1.6 0.2 0 0
12.3 0.7 0.06 9.8 1.4 0.3 0 0
13.7 0.7 0.06 11 1.4 0.5 0 0
14.7 0.6 0.07 12 1.3 0.8 0 0
33 27
38 28
808 371 213 8.3 130 20 0 353 0 84 4.1 39 32 6.2 0.6 0 2.4
830 300 162 8.3 110 20 0 420 0 110 4.3 52 42 7.5 1.0 0 3.0
856 256 118 8.3 110 20 0 480 0 120 4.5 57 45 8.5 1.5 0 3.5
CHP by producer Main activity producers Autoproducers
4.1 4.0
5.4 4.3
6.2 4.4
7.3 5.0
8.3 5.4
9.1 5.6
73 53 24 1.0 21 7.0 0 18 0 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0 0 0
91 55 24 1.0 23 7.4 0 25 0 12 1.7 2.0 7.2 0.4 0 0 0.3
110 61 26 1.0 26 7.3 0 31 0 19 1.7 3.8 12 0.7 0.03 0 0.4
146 61 27 1.0 26 7.1 0 42 0 42 1.8 12 26 0.9 0.1 0 0.7
154 52 21 1.0 23 7.0 0 50 0 52 1.9 16 32 1.2 0.1 0 0.9
25 44 0 589
32 56 0 742
33 58 0 766
160 46 15 1.0 23 7.0 0 57 0 56 2.0 17 35 1.3 0.2 0 1.0
31 54 0 723
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
0.9 1.3%
9.4 10.4%
16.4 14.9%
39 27.0%
49 31.9%
53 33.0%
13 2.3%
25 3.9%
73 9.1%
97 11.7%
106 12.3%
3.6%
12.7%
17.1%
28.9%
34.0%
35.2%
1.1%
3.6%
5.2%
10.4%
13.2%
14.0%
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
District heating plants Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal
121 46 75 0 0
120 46 74 0 0
135 52 84 0 0
148 57 92 0 0
165 63 102 0 0
166 64 103 0 0
Heat from CHP Fossil fuels Biomass Geothermal Fuel cell (hydrogen)
172 168 4 0 0
187 181 6 0 0
207 199 8 0 0
220 209 11 0 0
221 209 12 0 0
225 210 15 0 0
Direct heating1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2)
1,371 1,301 67 1 1
1,708 1,606 100 1 1
1,926 1,797 126 1 2
2,151 1,994 153 1 2
2,383 2,188 190 2 3
2,513 2,293 214 2 4
Total heat supply1) Fossil fuels Biomass Solar collectors Geothermal2) Fuel cell ((hydrogen)
1,664 1,515 146 1 1 0
2,016 1,833 181 1 1 0
2,269 2,048 218 1 2 0
2,520 2,260 257 1 2 0
2,769 2,460 304 2 3 0
2,904 2,567 332 2 4 0
RES share (including RES electricity)
9.0%
9.1%
9.7%
10.3%
11.1%
11.6%
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
210 171 7 21 10 0
213 169 8 27 10 0
228 176 8 35 10 0
222 172 8 33 9 0
164 124 7 24 9 0
124 86 7 22 9 0
Combined heat & power production 22 6 Coal 2 Lignite 10 Gas 4 Oil
28 5 1 17 5
28 4 1 19 4
28 3 1 21 4
28 2 1 22 4
27 2 1 22 3
231 178 9 31 14
241 174 9 44 15
256 180 9 54 14
250 175 8 54 13
192 126 8 45 13
152 87 8 44 13
501 CO2 emissions by sector 210% % of 1990 emissions 66 Industry 60 Other sectors 86 Transport Power generation (incl. CHP public) 214 75 Other conversion
546 228% 87 67 95 223 74
584 244% 98 72 99 239 77
604 253% 110 75 110 235 75
566 237% 119 78 118 179 73
526 220% 123 78 116 139 69
48.0 10.5
49.1 11.1
49.8 11.7
50.3 12.0
49.4 11.5
47.1 11.2
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
417 187 7.2 55 15 0 148 0.5 2.8 0.7 0.6 0 0 0
509 192 8.0 70 14 0 206 2.4 3.8 4.0 8.0 0 0 0.9
611 205 8.0 92 14 0 259 3.6 3.9 10 14 0.2 0 1.4
754 210 8.0 87 14 0 353 4.4 4.1 39 32 0.6 0 2.4
770 159 8.0 62 14 0 420 4.6 4.3 52 42 1.0 0 3.0
790 115 8.0 58 14 0 480 4.1 4.5 57 45 1.5 0 3.5
Combined heat & power production 35 2.8 Coal 0.6 Lignite 27 Gas 4.7 Oil 0.2 Biomass 0 Geothermal 0 Hydrogen CHP by producer 14 Main activity producers 21 Autoproducers
44 2.9 0.3 35 5.5 0.6 0 0
48 2.9 0.3 38 5.7 0.9 0 0
54 2.9 0.3 43 5.9 1.8 0 0
60 2.8 0.3 48 6.0 2.9 0 0
20 24
23 24
29 26
452 299 190 7.8 82 20 0 148 0 4.8 2.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0 0 0
553 328 195 8.3 105 20 0 206 0 20 3.8 4.0 8.0 3.0 0 0 0.9
659 366 208 8.3 130 20 0 259 0 34 3.9 10 14 4.5 0.2 0 1.4
17 Distribution losses 29 Own consumption electricity 0 Electricity for hydrogen production Final energy consumption (electricity) 406
21 37 0 495
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES
1 0.3%
RES share
Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
9
ㄉ ㄾ⤉ â´?â˛?âš&#x;⏲ 2009
TWK D
⹏ⓠ_
Total generation Fossil Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Hydrogen Renewables Hydro Wind PV Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean energy
⌽ǎ ₙ᳑ áœ˝Óšŕ¸?᪅
ㄉ ㄾ⤉ ⸥ ⣪⤎ 3- a
1) including cooling. 2) including heat pumps
ㄉ ㄾ⤉ ⺞Ⳍㅯ㠢ⴏ Ⱘ⿎⏲ MILL W D Condensation power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel
CO2 emissions power generation (incl. CHP public) Coal Lignite Gas Oil & diesel
Population (Mill.) CO2 emissions per capita (t/capita)
56
GW Power plants Coal Lignite Gas Oil Diesel Nuclear Biomass Hydro Wind PV Geothermal Solar thermal power plants Ocean energy
Fluctuating RES (PV, Wind, Ocean) Share of fluctuating RES RES share
ㄉ ㄾ⤉ ➅⸕⧖⟌ âľ?⚘ 3- a
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total Fossil Hard coal Lignite Natural gas Crude oil
9,614 7,792 2,708 80 1,151 3,853
11,090 8,500 2,731 78 1,523 4,168
12,378 9,075 2,868 78 1,803 4,326
14,078 9,481 2,860 77 1,917 4,628
14,700 9,181 2,379 74 1,862 4,866
15,151 8,844 1,984 71 1,893 4,896
Nuclear Renewables Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Geothermal Ocean Energy RES share
1,612 210 10 2 3 193 1 0 2.2%
2,244 346 14 14 30 284 1 3 3.1%
2,830 472 14 36 52 357 8 5 3.8%
3,852 746 15 140 117 442 23 9 5.3%
4,583 936 15 187 153 532 38 11 6.4%
5,237 1,070 16 205 164 615 57 13 7.1%
ㄉ ㄾ⤉ ⿂❎ ⸕⧖⟌ âľ?⚘ PJ D
2009
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Total (incl. non-energy use) Total (energy use) Transport Oil products Natural gas Biofuels Electricity RES electricity Hydrogen RES share Transport
6,189 4,639 1,226 1,172 37 9 8 0 0 0.7%
7,172 5,528 1,363 1,277 52 25 9 0 0 1.9%
7,926 6,232 1,430 1,323 59 38 10 0 0 2.7%
8,986 7,189 1,611 1,460 79 59 12 1 0 3.8%
9,555 7,649 1,772 1,553 104 86 29 4 0 5.1%
9,887 7,866 1,861 1,505 138 131 87 12 0 7.7%
Industry Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal Hydrogen RES share Industry
1,673 718 8 211 29 203 211 266 0 64 0 0 6.0%
2,164 918 33 215 58 293 309 341 0 88 0 0 8.3%
2,560 1,099 57 243 67 347 361 404 0 107 0 0 9.0%
2,961 1,278 133 263 75 405 421 476 0 119 0 0 11.0%
3,154 1,303 172 274 82 457 463 520 0 138 0 0 12.5%
3,242 1,316 185 277 85 484 479 540 0 145 0 0 12.8%
Other Sectors Electricity RES electricity District heat RES district heat Coal Oil products Gas Solar Biomass and waste Geothermal RES share Other Sectors
1,741 735 8 78 16 37 365 503 1 20 1 2.7%
2,000 854 30 88 33 26 446 549 1 35 1 5.0%
2,243 1,014 52 95 35 23 477 586 1 46 1 6.1%
2,618 1,313 137 100 37 21 502 612 1 66 2 9.3%
2,722 1,339 177 106 40 21 525 639 2 88 2 11.4%
2,763 1,353 190 108 40 23 524 645 2 107 3 12.3%
Total RES RES share
156 3.4%
305 5.5%
405 6.5%
631 8.8%
792 10.4%
898 11.4%
Non energy use Oil Gas Coal
1,549 1,534 0 16
1,644 1,626 0 18
1,693 1,674 0 19
1,796 1,776 0 20
1,906 1,885 0 21
2,022 1,999 0 22