ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK
5.2 electricity generation
5 key results |
The development of the electricity supply market under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market. This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 96% of the electricity produced in EU 27 will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 75% of electricity generation. The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 44% already by 2020 and 67% by 2030. The installed capacity of renewables will reach 989 GW in 2030 and 1,480 GW by 2050.
EU 27 - ELECTRICITY GENERATION
Table 5.1 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in EU 27 over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 40% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management.
table 5.1: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
Hydro
REF E[R]
146 146
155 151
161 155
164 161
168 165
Biomass
REF E[R]
20 20
29 35
36 47
42 57
47 72
Wind
REF E[R]
75 75
189 246
243 368
275 458
298 492
Geothermal
REF E[R]
1 1
2 6
2 25
3 45
4 56
PV
REF E[R]
14 14
77 213
110 345
137 498
163 570
CSP
REF E[R]
0 0
2 11
4 31
5 62
6 81
Ocean energy
REF E[R]
0 0
0 3
2 18
11 36
16 44
Total
REF E[R]
256 256
455 666
558 636 702 989 1,316 1,480
figure 5.5: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION)
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/a 0 REF 2009
58
E[R]
REF 2015
E[R]
REF 2020
E[R]
REF 2030
E[R]
REF 2040
E[R]
REF 2050
E[R]
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OCEAN ENERGY SOLAR THERMAL GEOTHERMAL BIOMASS PV WIND HYDRO NUCLEAR DIESEL OIL NATURAL GAS LIGNITE COAL