ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE EU 27 ENERGY OUTLOOK
4.10.2 the development of the global solar photovoltaic industry
4 scenarios for a future energy supply |
Inspired by the successful work with the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), Greenpeace began working with the European Photovoltaic Industry Association to publish “Solar Generation 10” – a global market projection for solar photovoltaic technology up to 2020 for the first time in 2001. Since then, six editions have been published and EPIA and Greenpeace have continuously improved the calculation methodology with experts from both organisations.
Figure 4.7 shows the actual projections for each year between 2001 and 2010 compared to the real market data, against the first two Energy [R]evolution editions (published in 2007 and 2008) and the IEA’s solar projections published in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007. The IEA did not make specific projections for solar photovoltaic in the first editions analysed in the research, instead the category “Solar/Tidal/Other” are presented in Figure 4.7 and 4.8.
figure 4.7: photovoltaics: short term prognosis vs real market development - global cummulative capacity 45,000 40,000
REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PAST
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 MW 0
REAL
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1,428
1,762
2,236
2,818
3,939
5,361
6,956
9,550
15,675
22,878
39,678
2,205
2,742
3,546
4,879
6,549
8,498
11,285
17,825
25,688
5,026
6,772
8,833
11,775
18,552
26,512
7,372
9,698
13,005
20,305
28,428
9,337
12,714
20,014
28,862
13,760
20,835
SG I 2001 SG II 2004 SG III 2006 SG IV 2007 (Advanced) SG V 2008 (Advanced) SG VI 2010 (Advanced)
25,447 36,629
ER 2007
22,694
ER 2008
20,606
ADVANCED ER 2010
IEA WEO 2000 (REF) IEA WEO 2002 (REF) IEA WEO 2005 (REF) IEA WEO 2007 (REF)
52
1,428
1,625
1,822
2,020
2,217
2,414
2,611
2,808
3,006
4,516
3,400
2,236
2,957
3,677
4,398
5,118
5,839
6,559
7,280
8,000
5,361
5,574
5,787
6,000
6,213
6,425
9550
9,575
9,600
9,625