2011–12 Tar HeelS
Tyler Zeller #44 OFFENSIVE HOT SPOTS AND GO-TO SHOTS Zeller’s go-to move in the post is undeniably the jump hook. He used the shot 141 times last season (37% of his total field-goal attempts), connecting on 58, or 41.1%. Over his first two campaigns, Zeller converted 38.8% of his hooks and attempted them on 35% of his shots. If he can inch that hook percentage into the mid-40s as a senior, he’ll become an even more efficient and reliable primary post option. Zeller also shot less frequently and more accurately from midrange. In his first two seasons, he attempted 22% of his shots from 10–19 feet, connecting on 32.7% of them. As a junior, Zeller attempted just 14% of his shots from this distance while making 39.6%. Much of this improvement was simply due to establishing consistently deeper post position, and therefore having to settle for fewer hook shots of the 12-foot variety. He was also a more consistent midrange jump shooter, particularly when trailing in the secondary break (and also from the short corner against opposing zones, albeit in limited opportunities). Most importantly, however, Zeller continued to be an efficient (and underrated) finisher around the basket. Although he doesn’t rattle the rim as much as many Heels fans would like, his quick release and ability to finish with either hand (51-71, or 71.8%, with the left hand in 2010–11) pay big dividends around the hoop. After making 68.6% of close field goals in his first two seasons, Zeller improved to 71.8% as a junior. His rate of close attempts also increased: from 45% of all shots as a freshman and sophomore to 49% as a junior. Kendall Marshall can be partially credited for both of these increases—his ability to complete hit-ahead passes and create in the halfcourt shouldn’t be overlooked. But Zeller also deserves some credit for adding strength and finishing through contact better (although he’ll never be confused with that other Tyler who recently donned Carolina blue).
STATISTICAL TRENDS AND BOX SCORE OBSERVATIONS In seven postseason contests, Zeller averaged 20.6 points with a TS% of 63.0%. If that continues through 2012, you’re looking at a first-team All-American. Both his assist rate and assist-to-turnover ratio skyrocketed in the postseason, too. Passing will never be his forte, but the more he can make opponents pay for doubling the post, the more dangerous Carolina’s offense will be. From a +/- perspective, Zeller was the Heels’ most irreplaceable offensive player (+12.4), and only Henson (defensive on-court/off-court of +2.9) was a more valuable defender than Zeller (+2.3). At his best against the best opponents, Zeller’s WORP/35 was higher against top 50 teams (3.03) than it was against those ranked 51 or worse (2.53).
DEFENSIVE BOX SCORE OBSERVATIONS Just a mediocre defensive rebounder, Zeller’s DR% was especially poor in ACC contests. While he often does the dirty work (consistently boxing out the opponent’s top offensive rebounder) that allows Henson to clean the defensive glass, Zeller’s progression in this area could help Carolina’s defense become truly elite. For the second consecutive year, he led the Heels in charges drawn (29) and charges drawn per 40 minutes (1.11). His Stop% of 65.7% trailed only Henson’s 66.4%—this interior duo clearly spearheaded UNC’s stellar defense last season (ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency). While opponents managed to make just 28.7% of their attempts against Henson (many of which were blocked or altered), Zeller limited them to a still-excellent 31.9% mark with his more blue-collar brand of positional post defense.
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7'0" • 250 • Washington, IN • Senior 2010–11 Minutes: C: 100.0%