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2 0 G W o f P V PV Module Prices Increased by 7% in December, but M a n u f a c t u r i n g Expected to fall 4% in January – IMS RESEARCH Equipment To Be Strong demand during the year-end rally saw installers buying PV modules from distributors at inflated prices. The survey found that installers were desperate to secure supply and Replaced By 2016 Aging equipment requiring upgrade or complete replacement represents the biggest opportunity currently and this is where the majority of equipment revenues will come from in 2012. The research report found that this could provide a 20 GW opportunity for equipment suppliers, generating some $25 billion in revenues over the next four years. Senior Research Director Tim Dawson comments: “IMS Research has estimated that there is between 2.5 and 4 GW of existing manufacturing capacity that requires upgrade in 2012, and this figure will steadily ramp-up over the coming few years. Companies wishing to remain competitive and take the opportunity to gain market share, will be forced to invest in new equipment.”
Conflicting Reports On PV Inverter Market In 2011 PV Inverter Market Achieves Record Shipments in 2011 – IMS research The PV inverter market achieved a new record in 2011 with shipments exceeding 26 GW for the first time according to preliminary results from IMS Research. The research firm found that inverter shipments grew by more than 15% in 2011, despite the huge inventory overhang from the year before, with more than 8 GW shipped in the last quarter of the year.
Solar Inverter Market Hits Speed Bump in 2011 – iSuppli Shipments of PV inverters last year fell to the equivalent of 23.4 gigawatts (GW), down 1 percent from 23.6 GW in 2010, according to an IHS iSuppli PV Inverter Market Tracker report from information and analysis provider IHS (NYSE: IHS). The decline in shipments last year was accompanied by a large 15 percent drop in revenue, down to €4.4 billion ($6.1 billion) because of a sharp decline in average selling prices. Prices plunged a steep 14 percent during the year much worse than earlier forecasts predicting only a 10 percent contraction. 8 EQ INTERNATIONAL January/February 12
complete installations before incentive levels were reduced, particularly in Germany where 3 GW of installations were connected in December alone. However, the survey also found that price increases were only temporary and both module suppliers and buyers expect price drops again in January. Q4’s strong spike in demand offered manufacturers muchneeded relief from the intense price pressure that blighted them for much of 2011“A strong pick-up in demand came late in the year in many countries, most notably Germany which installed over 4 GW in Q4’11.
Solar photovoltaic market continues to grow in Europe and around the world The world-wide solar photovoltaic (PV) market continued to grow in 2011 even in the midst of financial and economic crisis, with new grid-connected PV capacities rising by 27.7 GW and propelling the global PV capacity from 39.7 GW at the end of 2010 to 67.4 GW at the end of 2011. Almost 21 GW of this growth occurred in Europe.The number of markets reaching more than 1 GW of additional capacity during 2011 rose from 3 to 6. In 2010 the top 3 markets were Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic; in 2011 Italy leads the ranks and Germany, China, the USA, France and Japan follow, each with over 1 GW of new capacity. Those are among the key findings of EPIA’s new “Market Report 2011”, which assesses PV’s development in all major markets around the world. Europe still accounts for the predominant share of the global PV market, the report finds, with 75% of all new capacity in 2011.Among the key statistics of the report: • Total installed PV capacity world-wide reached 67.4 GW at the end of 2011. PV is now, after hydro and wind power, the third most important renewable energy source in terms of globally installed capacity. • The growth rate of PV during 2011 reached 70%, an outstanding level among all renewable technologies. • The total energy output of the world’s PV capacity run over a calendar year is equal to some 80 billion kWh. This energy volume is sufficient to cover the annual power supply needs of over 20 million households in the world. • In Europe, over 50 GW of PV systems were installed at the end of 2011. With growing contributions from Southern European countries, the average load factor of this capacity is increasing and willproduce over 60 billion kWh on an annual basis, enough energy to supply over 15 million European households.
CIGS Solar Market to Nearly Double to $2.35 Billion and 2.3 Gigawatts in 2015 Lux researchers positioned CIGS developers using the Lux Innovation Grid, based on their Technical Value and Business Execution, with companies that are strong on both axes reaching the “Dominant” quadrant – and also assessed each company’s maturity, providing an overall “Lux Take.” Among their conclusions: • Solar Frontier is a clear winner. Solar Frontier is a clear winner, with a solid position in the “Dominant” quadrant – and was the only firm to earn a “Strong Positive” take. With inroads into new and emerging markets such as India, where it is selling over 30 MW of panels, Solar Frontier excels in overall execution. • Global Solar, Avancis and Solibro are likely to consolidate. The three companies are likely to emerge as bankable players. Global Solar has demonstrated slow but steady progress and is currently selling its PowerFLEX Technology, a shingle product, to Dow. Still, to succeed it needs to adopt a less conservative approach. Avancis has a joint venture with Hyundai Heavy Industries for CIGS module production in Asia. As for Solibro it will need to quickly and independently strengthen its financial position to succeed. • Stion, Miasole and Nuvosun can emerge as champions. All three are “Dominant” with the potential to emerge as early champions in this technology. However, their success will depend on capacity utilization and ramp-up, customer relationships, strategic partnerships and consistent execution in terms of their module costs, yield and module efficiency. • ISET, Flisom and AQT can be acquisition targets. All three are “High Potential” companies – firms with strong technical value but weaker business execution scores – and have assets that make them prized acquisition targets.
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