EU Referendum Briefing: Thoughts from the Chairman

BREXIT ANALYSIS – PRESENTED BY EDELMAN

EU REFERENDUM t

23 JUNE 2016

MMO O N NT HTH S S

DAYS DAYS

THOUGHTS FROM THE CHAIRMAN The BBC has invited me to appear on David Dimbleby’s EU Referendum night programme. They have offered me the midnight to 1am slot. If this were a General Election night this would be ‘prime time’. The constituency results would be pouring in and the overall picture on how the nation had decided would be emerging.

This will not be the case on referendum night. There is no pattern of relevant results on which to base forecasts. Counting will be slower. There will be more recounts. We may not know the result until well into the morning of Friday 24th June. The BBC’s offer of a prime slot to a non-descript crossbench Peer looks a lot less flattering than at first sight.

It beggars belief that we are having a referendum on the EU. Referenda should be limited to issues of conscience. We elect Members of Parliament to make all other decisions on our behalf and kick them out if we lose confidence.

David Cameron offered a referendum in order to stop the Tories ‘banging on about Europe’ and to reunite the party. So much for that! The referendum campaign has been characterised by intensive ‘blue on blue’ confrontation and words that will not be easily forgotten. David Cameron’s grip on the Conservative leadership diminishes day by day.

It has not been much better for Labour which has unashamedly stood back from voicing a strong opinion. It has been content to see the Conservatives engage in self-harm and conceal its support for Remain in order to avoid alienating traditional working class supporters on the subject of migration.

It defeats me how David Cameron could have told us earlier this year that there was real possibility of him campaigning for Exit, only for him now to be raising

the spectre of war and economic depression. If he really believes these risks he cannot possibly defend conceding a referendum to simply fend off the political risk of UKIP and silence, for a short while, twenty or so rabid eurosceptics in his own party.

I will be voting for Remain. Cutting through a gross misuse of statistics, by both sides, the economic case for Remain is strong. Exit will inevitably lead to lower trade and economic activity for a period of time. Investment and consumption will reflect lower confidence. The extent and duration of this setback will depend on ‘known unknowns’ – we are completely in the dark on what Exit will mean in terms of trade. An Exited United Kingdom would have no increase in ‘sovereignty’ as we already enjoy substantial opt-outs. Globalisation and memberships of organisations such as the UN and NATO are examples of the reality of qualified sovereignty.

Migration will not necessarily change as a result of Exit and our bargaining power with the EU would be very circumscribed. Above all we would lose our voice in the world and will have been party to undermining, possibly fatally, an EU which has contributed to peace and the consolidation of democracy in Europe.

So, I am a Remainer. But I have asked the BBC for the 6am slot!

Lord Myners Chairman, Edelman London Paul Myners is the Chairman of Edelman in the UK, providing senior strategic counsel. He spent most of his professional career in fund management with N.M. Rothschild & Sons and Gartmore before chairing a number of major companies, including Guardian Media Group, Marks & Spencer and Land Securities. He has also experienced frontline politics, serving as City Minister in the Labour Government between 2008 and 2010. He was a trusted advisor to Gordon Brown over many years.

Insights for Brexit and the EU Referendum

Provided by Edelman Intelligence

Insights into the EU Referendum If you are interested in receiving further insights on Brexit and the EU Referendum, please contact Gurpreet Brar on gurpreet.brar@edelman.com and 020 3047 2466 for further details

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK

CABONOMICS: THE MOOD OF THE NATION I have been driving a taxi for over 25 years and have engaged customers on every subject under the sun.

Six or so weeks ago I turned my attention to Brexit and began to canvass those eligible to vote in the referendum. What started as a bit of fun has snowballed into a substantial sample of 768 people – with still a week to go! In, out or undecided is all I asked. I’ve had lessons in history, economics, immigration, free trade, fiscal and political integration and the shape and size of fruit.

The current standings are: 54% in, 21% out with 24% undecided.

The majority of the latter I believe will err on the side of caution and vote in. The breakdown goes under 30 you’re in, over 60 you’re out.

Rural you’re out except in the SW where you might be in or out, ditto in Northern Ireland. In Scotland you’re in, metropolitan you’re in and finally if you’re in business 85% wish to remain. If the Cabonomics poll proves to be representative, then it’s keep calm and carry on.

Business as usual.

Brian Kelly Taxi Driver

Key Issues REMAIN Leaving the single market would take 6% of the UK’s GDP, leave a £36bn black hole in public finances and cost every household £4,300 a year

LEAVE ECONOMY

Analysis: Treasury reports have been widely accused of scaremongering, being inaccurate and being overly negative. The Chancellor has been criticised for having got economic forecasts wrong in the past, and critics have questioned how this would be any different

The EU is an increasingly important pillar of our security, particularly at a time of instability in the Middle East and a resurgence in Russian nationalism and aggression Analysis: There has been an intense battle between Britain’s former intelligence chiefs over membership of the EU; whilst some claim Britain would be safer inside the EU, others refute the notion – Eliza Manningham-Buller, former head of the domestic intelligence service, has joined forces with her successor, Sir Jonathan Evans, and the former head of MI6 Sir John Sawers in support of remaining in Europe. They are at odds with another former MI6 chief, Sir Richard Dearlove

A Brexit would result in the country giving up its influence in Europe, turning back the clock and retreating from the global power networks of the 21st century

Analysis: The Brexiteers have been accused of using a grossly misleading figure of savings of £350m.

More credible is a net figure of £163m a week – but NHS chiefs say that this money would only keep the NHS running for just 19 days a year

SECURITY

Analysis: It has been widely suggested in the media that economics will trump immigration as the deciding consideration for most voters; even Vote Leave spokesman Robert Oxley has been quoted as saying: “The one thing you know is that people care more about their jobs than they do about migration”

We are leaving the door open to terrorist attacks, with open borders allowing people to come and go as they please Analysis: The biggest issue for many campaigners is how much difference the EU’s rules on freedom of movement make to Britain’s ability to police its borders. There are continued concerns that a vote to leave could trigger a second Scottish referendum and expose the UK to further strategic risks

POLITICS Britain could re-establish itself as a truly independent nation with connections to the rest of the world – It doesn’t need the EU to prosper internationally

Analysis: Many feel that membership gives the UK Government more control over the forces that affect British people; whether the UK is a member of the EU or not, the UK will be affected by the decisions taken by its geographical neighbour and largest trading partner

The system of the free movement of workers is good for Britain and its people. While there are problems, these can be addressed with sensible integration policies

This would result in an immediate cost-saving, with the UK no longer contributing to the EU budget, and the freedom to negotiate our own trade deals

Analysis: There is general agreement that the Prime Minister didn’t achieve enough in his renegotiation deal. Many accept that the EU is not democratic or transparent enough

IMMIGRATION

A points system should be introduced – Britain can never control immigration until it leaves the EU as freedom of movement gives other EU citizens an automatic right to live here Analysis: The Government has been accused of having been less than honest with people about the nature of immigration and failing to appreciate the impact on schools, the NHS and other public services on schools

Insights into the EU Referendum If you are interested in receiving further insights on Brexit and the EU Referendum, please contact Gurpreet Brar on gurpreet.brar@edelman.com and 020 3047 2466 for further details

Edelman | Southside | 105 Victoria Street | SW1E 6QT London | www.edelman.co.uk | 0203 047 2000 | @edelmanUK