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Global Megatrends
Natural resources
natural resources under increasing stress The over-exploitation of resources is one of the most important challenges facing us. Water will come under stress and alternative technologies may be hampered by scarcity of rare earth elements.
Increased urban population will introduce new challenges, but also opportunities for recycling and better utilisation of waste. Addressing these resource issues is an immense, but not insurmountable, task.
Overexploitation of the planet If humanity’s demands on the planet continue at the same rate as today, by the 2020s the equivalent of two planets will be needed in order to maintain our lifestyles. Key building blocks for civilisation, arable land and water, will come under increasing pressure as the global population and standards of living continue to increase towards 2020. With emerging countries adopting the same consumption patterns as their industrialised neighbours, population growth is likely to exacerbate resource disparity further and impose additional pressures on already distressed ecosystems.
Food for thought Many resources are falling victim to overconsumption, with potentially dramatic consequences for society and environment. Climate change factors will further stress the biological capacity of the planet. Biodiversity loss, currently running at about 1,000 times the ”natural” species extinction rate, will result in resources being lost forever. The economics of biodiversity suggest that deforestation alone costs the global economy US$ 2-5 trillion each year.
Uneven global water challenges use today is for agriculture (70 %), The water challenge a question supply, AverageisWater Use of Per Person water Per Day demand, and uneven distribution. The while industrial activities use 17 %, and US Australia Italy current rate of construction of new water domestic requirements and municipalities Japan Mexica infrastructure will result in a significant use 13 %. The demands of the two last Spain Norway supply deficit. Northern China, southern categories quadrupled in the second half of France Austria Denmark and central India, southern Australia, the the 20th century. Financially, it is 3-4 times Germany Brazil South West United States and the Middle more effective to create better demand Peru Philippines East will be the regions that are most solutions then to focus on the supply side. UK India China affected by water shortages. Bangladesh Kenya Towards 2020, the importance of water for Ghana Nigeria Towards 2020, new, more cost-effective power generation will also come into focus. Burkina Paso Niger Angola and energy-efficient desalination plants In 2007- 2008, power plants in USA were Cambodia Ethiopia will have to be developed, as well as more within days of being forced to shut down Haiti Rwanda efficient distribution networks. Currently, due to a lack of water for cooling. The Uganda Mozambique between 3075% to 50 distributed water frequency of this600type of event is expected 0 150 % of225 300 375 450 525 is lost due to leakages, requiring Litres clearly to increase towards 2020. Moreover, most United Nations Development Program - Human Devopment Report 2006 large-scale investment in new infrastructure of the alternative energy and climate towards 2020. Regardless of improvements change technologies require considerable on the supply side, more efforts are needed amount of water. to reduce demand. Globally, the greatest
Water Useage
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150
The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reports that current world food production should be able to sustain twice the world’s population, but one of the major challenges is efficient food distribution. In areas where food is abundant, enormous quantities of food are discarded at all steps of the food supply chain and also from households, and wasted food also means wasted water. In the US alone, as much as 30 % of food is thrown away. This corresponds to about 40 trillion litres of direct water usage in agriculture and processing operations, corresponding to the household needs of 500 million people. The economic crisis pushed millions of people into starvation; while the global demand for food, feed and fibre is expected to grow rapidly. Annual cereal and meat production will need to grow by 20 and 5 million tons, respectively, at a time when production is disrupted by increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather events. Industrialized food production is completely dependent on the use of manufactured fertilizers. Biofuel production has increased the pressure on fertilizers, in particular the macronutrients nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Nitrogen is readily available, but the production of ammonia for fertilizer is a large consumer of fossil fuels, using 2% of the worlds energy production. Mining of phosphorous and potassium rapidly consumes these minerals; current known resources of phosphorous are likely to >>
Rare Earth Elements
US Mexico Norway Germany UK China Cambodia Uganda Mozambique 0
The proportion of people worldwide that are undernourished has decreased from 24 % in 1970 to 14 % in 2010. However, more than a billion people still do not have enough to eat.
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375
Average daily water use per person. Source: UNDP 2006.
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Litres