Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance
AHC 6/3/12
102
policy than it would otherwise, and use its nuclear capability to leverage other regional actors and competitors.
US Responses to Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Efforts The US response to Iran’s existing and potential actions has scarcely been passive. As is described in the next chapter, the US continues to use sanctions and diplomacy as its primary current means of limiting Iran’s nuclear efforts, and other diplomatic and negotiating initiatives. US officials have consistently stated that military options are still under consideration, but the US has joined its 5+1 allies at the negotiating table with Iran and did so again in January 2011. The need to keep many key aspects of US threat perceptions classified means that there is no clear way to determine how top level US decision makers view the broader trade-offs between negotiation, preventive and preemptive military options, and deterrence/containment. The US has taken enough overt actions, however, so that it is clear that the US is treating Iran’s missile and nuclear programs as a key aspect of US and Iranian military competition, and one where current US perceptions will almost certainly change if Iran clearly moves to the point of a nuclear break out capability, tests a device, and begins to deploy some mix of nuclear armed forces.
Missile Defense The US has already made it clear that it will rely on a combination missile defense and deterrence even if Iran does deploy nuclear-armed aircraft and missiles. As noted earlier, the U.S. has continued to work with its allies to create missile defense forces in the Gulf, has supported Israel’s missile defense programs, has laid the ground for missile defense in Europe, and has begun to deploy advanced missile defense destroyers. The new US strategy announced in January 2012 calls for four advanced guided missile defense destroyers – with wide area ballistic missile defense coverage -- to be based in Rota Spain that can be used to defend Europe and Israel. Other key missile defense assets in the region include US Navy Aegis anti-ballistic missile cruisers stationed in the Gulf, and advanced versions of the MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system that Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia have acquired the from the US. Lastly, in September, 2011 the US and Turkey reached an agreement whereby a missile defense radar site will be constructed only 435 miles from the Turkey-Iran border.30 While Iran’s missiles have not been stated as the exclusive target of the system, it will greatly enable the US’ ability to detect and intercept an Iranian missile launch. This radar station is an element of the US’ larger European Phased Adaptive Approach to missile defense, which is comprised of four phases:31
30
Shanker, Thom. “U.S. Hails Deal With Turkey on Missile Shield.” New York Times. September 15, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/16/world/europe/turkey-accepts-missile-radar-for-nato-defense-against-iran.html 31
“U.S.-Romania Missile Defense Comes Into Force.” VOA. January 3, http://www.voanews.com/policy/editorials/europe/US---Romania-Missile-Defense-Comes-Into-Force136698993.html
2012.
102