Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance
AHC 6/3/12
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Figure IV.25 shows the Bipartisan Policy Center’s projections for the growth of Iran’s stockpile of 19.75% enriched uranium. At its current average rate of enrichment, Iran could produce enough 19.75% enriched uranium to produce one fission weapon. Iran’s enrichment rate, however, is increasing, and it is likely that it could produce this quantity sooner. At 300% of the 2011 rate, Iran could produce enough 19.75% uranium to build a fission device by December 2012.
Figure IV.26 gives the Bipartisan Policy Center’s projections for the time it would take for Iran to produce the necessary 20 kg of 90% HEU for a nuclear device. The estimate given is 62 days.
Figure IV.27 provides the Bipartisan Policy Center’s projections for the time it would take Iran to produce 20 kg of HEU at Natanz given variable stockpile enrichment levels, centrifuge efficiency, and number.
Figure IV.28 indicates that Iran might be able to produce 20 kg of 90% HEU at Natanz using a two-step batch recycling method to enrich its stockpiles of 3.5% and 19.75% uranium in as little as 62 days.
Figure IV.29 indicates that Iran might be able to produce 20 kg of 90% HEU at Natanz using a three-step batch recycling method to enrich its stockpiles of 3.5% and 19.75% uranium in approximately 181 days.
Figure IV.30 contrasts the different estimates of both the Bipartisan Policy Center and the IISS of Iran’s nuclear breakout ability. According to the BPC itself, its estimate is vastly lower than that of the IISS for the following reasons: 1) IISS assumes Iran will use a slower enrichment process because it is more efficient, our analysis is based on a faster method; 2) IISS assumes Iran will only use 3,936 centrifuges, while they have 5,184 currently operational at Natanz; 3) IISS estimates that Iran will need 37.5kg of HEU for a nuclear weapon, compared to our estimate of 20kg; 4) the IISS assessment is of the time to go from LEU stockpile to a manufactured, spherical uranium metal core for a nuclear device, our calculations only include enriching LEU into HEU. When updated with our assumptions (faster enrichment, more centrifuges, less HEU), the IISS calculation is actually closely in line with our own: 2.5 months to produce HEU at Natanz.
Figure IV.31 shows the amount of fissile material needed to build a basic fission weapon.
Figure IV.32 summarizes the February 25, 2011 IAEA report. It shows that continues to refuse to cooperate with the IAEA regarding weaponization issues, heavy water production, R&D into uranium enrichment, and enrichment locations.
Figure IV.33 provides a detailed account of Iran’s lack of cooperation with the IAEA in matters pertaining weapons production and the militarization of its nuclear program as of February 25, 2011. These areas include production of LEU up to U-235 20% at Natanz; construction of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant; heavy water production; locations, equipment, persons, or documentation related to the possible military dimensions of Iran’s program; high explosives manufacturing and testing, exploding bridgewire detonator studies, particularly in involving applications necessitating simultaneity, and missile re-entry vehicle redesign activities for a new payload assessed as being nuclear in nature; IR-40 reactors.
Figure IV.34 shows that Iran continued to show a lack of cooperation with the IAEA on seven key matters relating to weaponization as of May 24, 2011 that were objects of the IAEA’s concern in February 2011.
Figure IV.35 provides details regarding enrichment activities at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) and Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) as of May 24, 2011. Both the FEP and PFEP are located at the Natanz enrichment facility.
Figure IV.36 provides details on Iran’s efforts to increase the production of 19.75% enriched uranium. Stockpiling uranium enriched to 19.75% would enhance Iran’s ability to achieve a fast nuclear breakout capability.
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