Cordesman/Wilner, Iran & The Gulf Military Balance Rev 3
AHC 2/29/12
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Introduction The most threatening form of US and Iranian competition takes place in the military and security arena. The areas where this competition now gets primary attention are the nuclear and missile arena, and Iranian threats to “close the Gulf.” US and Iranian tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have grown steadily over the years. They now threaten to reach the crisis point as Iran produces highly enriched uranium and develops all of the technology necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and as US, European, and UN sanctions become steadily stronger. The military competition between the US and Iran also goes on a far wider level in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, Levant, Arab-Israeli conflict, Turkey, Afghanistan, and beyond – as Iran expands its ballistic missile capabilities. Their military competition involves a wide range of other states – particularly the Arab Gulf states and Israel. It occurs in ways where each nation, and its allies, seeks to deny the other side military options, and seeks to establish or reinforce containment, deterrence, and limits on escalation. It is also a competition for military prestige and status, and which seeks to use military forces to influence the behavior of other states.
The Historical Background The history of US and Iranian military competition tracks closely with the history of the political tensions between the US and Iran.. The US sees Iran as a state that has been vehemently antiAmerican since the fall of the Shah and the founding of the Islamic Republic, which held US embassy employees hostage, and threatens the region, exports terrorism, and exports aid and arms to insurgents and extremists in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US sees Iran as a nation seeking nuclear-armed missiles, that is steadily building up asymmetric forces that threaten friendly Gulf states and the stable flow of Gulf petroleum exports, and that is developing the capability to threaten Israel’s existence. It feels Iran seeks to become the dominant power in the region while seeking to expel US power and influence. Iran sees competition as driven by US efforts to dominate the Gulf and the region, by a period of US intervention in Iranian internal affairs that began in 1953, by US security assistance to the Pahlavi regime before the Shah’s fall, US support of Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, the “tanker war” from 1987-1988, and US efforts to deny Iran imports of arms and military technology. Iran feels the US seeks to dominate the region and Iran, while seeking to contain Iran’s power and influence. It also seeks the US as threatening Iran’s regime, as a possible invader, and as a state the might strike preemptively to destroy Iran’s nuclear programs and weaken its military forces. It sees the US as the cause of growing economic problems and a sanctions regime that could cripple the Iranian economy. The end result is a competition of building and deploying military forces that has now gone on for more than 30 years, and which has occasionally led to direct military action. Key events include the Iranian hostage crisis (1979-1981), US seizure of Iranian assets, the imposition of sanctions on Iran, and occasional military clashes (1988). The most prominent aspect of USIranian rivalry, though, has been the use of proxies. The recent history of US and Iranian military competition is shown in Figure III.1. It reflects the fact that Iran has sought to bridge the gap in conventional capability by building a strong capacity asymmetric warfare to defend against attacks and invasion, and the extent of its 5