CORN
Ethanol Usage Projections & Corn Balance Sheet (mil. bu.) (Med. 2008 crop production based on USDA October Crop Report) Updated: 10/13/2008 Historic 1
Year: (production/marketing) Yield (bu. per acre) Long-term Historical Yield Probability:
Projected 2008-2009
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 160.4 147.9 149.1 151.1
Projected 2009-2010 4
Projected 2010-2011 4
Low 152.0
Med. 154.0
High 155.5
Med. Low 148.0 157.5 18% 65%
High 162.0 17%
Med. Low 150.0 159.0 18% 65%
High 164.0 17%
Supplies: Planted acres (million) Harvested acres (million) Production (mil. bu.) Beginning Carryover (mil. bu.) Total Supply (incl. imports)
80.9 73.6 11,807 958 12,776
81.8 75.1 11,114 2,114 13,237
78.3 70.6 10,535 1,967 12,514
93.6 86.5 13,073 1,304 14,395
86.9 79.0 12,008 1,624 13,647
86.9 79.2 12,200 1,624 13,839
86.9 79.3 12,331 1,624 13,970
91.0 83.4 12,343 1,149 13,509
91.0 84.0 13,230 1,149 14,394
91.0 84.0 13,608 1,149 14,772
94.0 86.4 12,960 1,099 14,076
94.0 87.0 13,833 1,099 14,947
94.0 87.0 14,268 1,099 15,382
Total Usage: (mil. bu.) Feed & residual Ethanol Food, ind. & seed Exports Total Usage
6,158 1,323 1,363 1,818 10,662
6,155 1,603 1,378 2,134 11,270
5,598 2,117 1,371 2,125 11,210
5,999 3,000 1,338 2,435 12,771
5,425 3,920 1,335 1,925 12,605
5,450 3,950 1,340 1,950 12,690
5,475 3,975 1,350 1,925 12,725
5,150 4,400 1,340 1,875 12,765
5,500 4,450 1,345 2,000 13,295
5,475 4,475 1,350 2,050 13,350
5,200 4,775 1,340 1,850 13,165
5,500 4,850 1,345 2,000 13,695
5,550 4,875 1,350 2,050 13,825
Ethanol Usage: 2 Ethanol usage (bu. corn) DDGS production (Mil. bu. corn equiv.)3 Ethanol usage (bu. per acre) DDGS production (bu. per acre equiv.) Ethanol usage (% corn production) DDGS production ( corn equiv.% of crop) Mil. bu. increase in ethanol vs. prev. year
1,323 227 18 3 11.2% 1.9%
1,603 282 21 4 14.4% 2.5% 280
2,117 371 30 5 20.1% 3.5% 514
3,000 524 35 6 22.9% 4.0% 883
3,920 683 50 9 32.6% 5.7% 920
3,950 689 50 9 32.4% 5.6% 950
3,975 693 50 9 32.2% 5.6% 975
4,400 766 53 9 35.6% 6.2% 450
4,450 775 53 9 33.6% 5.9% 500
4,475 779 53 9 32.9% 5.7% 525
4,775 831 55 10 36.8% 6.4% 325
4,850 844 56 10 35.1% 6.1% 400
4,875 848 56 10 34.2% 5.9% 425
Ending Carryover: (mil. bu.) Carryover as percent of supply Carryover, weeks of total use
2,114 16.5% 10.3
1,967 14.9% 9.1
1,304 10.4% 6.0
1,624 11.3% 6.6
1,042 7.6% 4.3
1,149 8.3% 4.7
1,245 8.9% 5.1
744 5.5% 3.0
1,099 7.6% 4.3
1,422 9.6% 5.5
911 6.5% 3.6
1,252 8.4% 4.8
1,557 10.1% 5.9
$2.06 $1.96 $0.30 $1.60 $1.98
$2.00 $1.95 $0.35 $1.40 $2.00
$3.04 $2.99 $0.00 $2.80 $3.15
$4.25 $4.20 $0.00 $3.30 $3.80
$4.50 $4.45 $0.00 $4.00 $4.60
$4.25 $4.20 $0.00 $3.75 $4.30
$4.10 $4.05 $0.00 $3.60 $4.20
$5.60 $5.55 $0.00 $5.20 $5.90
$4.35 $4.30 $0.00 $4.00 $4.60
$4.20 $4.15 $0.00 $3.75 $4.35
$5.40 $5.35 $0.00 $5.00 $5.70
$4.25 $4.20 $0.00 $4.60 $5.30
$4.15 $4.10 $0.00 $4.30 $4.90
25
43
75
119
122
4
4
53
7
4
34
11
4
6 363
11 -3
15 -557
34 401
38 -574 -9.6%
38 -549 -9.1%
39 -524 -8.7%
21 -300 -5.5%
22 50 0.9%
23 25 0.5%
40 -300 -4.6%
22 0 0.9%
22 50 1.8%
388
40
-482
519
-452
-544
-520
-247
57
29
-266
11
54
Prices: U.S. weighted avg. farm price Iowa weighted avg. farm price Counter-Cyclical Pmt. Harvest price (central Iowa) Dec. Futures Price (harvest avg.) Other: Feed use % chg. Low-yield years vs. 2007-08 Mil. bu. domestic corn feeding replaced by increased DDGS 2 Mil. bu. corn exports replaced by increased DDGS Mil. bu. change in corn feeding vs. prev. year % decline in corn feeding vs. prev. year: Net change in domestic corn feeding (mil. bu.) vs. prev. yr., incl. DDGS
-9.6%
-14.1%
-13.3%
1 Marketing year starts at Sept. 1 of the production year and ends Aug. 31 of the following year. 2 DDGS substitution for corn feeding is based on 17 pounds of DDGS per bushel of corn. Assumed total DDGS consumption: 42.5% fed to dairy, 32.5% to beef, 5% hogs, 5% poultry and 15% exported in 2007’08 with gradually increasing future exports and a slightly decreasing percentage fed domestically. 3 Includes corn equivalent of DDGS exports 4 Medium yield approximately equals 1990-2007 trend yield. 1995-2007 yield trend is modestly higher, with two low years and one very high year tilting the trend line upward. Actual yield has been below the 1995-2007 trend all but one year (2004) since 2002. Actual yield has been below the 19902007 trend all except two years since 2004. Key Balance Sheet Assumptions: 1. No changes in Conservation Reserve Program 2. Crude oil price stays in $75 to $95 per barrel range 3. U.S. ethanol mandates, blending credit and import tariff are unchanged and enforced 4. U.S. and world economies have gradual slowing of growth through 2010 5. U.S. dollar stabilizes relative to foreign currencies near Oct. 7, 2008 levels 6. U.S. biodiesel mandate is implemented for 2009 and 2010
SOURCE: ROBERT WISNER
ETHANOL PRODUCER MAGAZINE DECEMBER 2008
71