January 23 - 29, 2013
FinancialMirror.com
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Earnings, money flows to push stocks higher l
S&P 500 has few hurdles ahead as it powers forward WALL ST WEEKAHEAD
With earnings momentum on the rise, the S&P 500 seems to have few hurdles ahead as it continues to power forward, its all-time high a not-so-distant goal. The U.S. equity benchmark closed last week at a new five-year high on strong housing and labor market data and a string of earnings that beat lowered expectations. Sector indexes in transportation, banks and housing last week hit historic or multiyear highs as well. Michael Yoshikami, chief executive at Destination Wealth Management in Walnut Creek, California, said the key earnings to watch for this week will come from cyclical companies. United Technologies reports on Wednesday while Honeywell is due to report Friday. “Those kind of numbers will tell you the trajectory the economy is taking,” Yoshikami said. Major technology companies will also report this week, but the bar for the sector has been lowered even further. Chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices are expected to underperform as PC sales shrink. AMD shares fell more than 10% on Friday after disappointing results from its larger competitor, Intel. Still, a chipmaker sector index posted its highest weekly close since last April. Following a recent underperformance, an upside sur-
prise from Apple on Wednesday could trigger a return to the stock from many investors who had abandoned ship. Other major companies reporting this week include Google, IBM, Johnson & Johnson and DuPont on Tuesday, Microsoft and 3M on Thursday and Procter & Gamble on Friday.
CASH POURING IN, HOUSING DATA COULD HELP
Perhaps the strongest support for equities will come from the flow of cash from fixed income funds to stocks. The recent piling into stock funds - $11.3 bln in the past two weeks, the most since 2000 - indicates a riskier approach to investing from retail investors looking for yield. “From a yield perspective, a lot of stocks still yield a great deal of money and so it is very easy to see why money is pouring into the stock market,” said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco. “You are just not going to see people put a lot of money to work in a 10-year Treasury that yields 1.8%.”
Housing stocks, already at a 5-1/2 year high, could get an additional bump this week as investors eye data expected to support the market’s perception that housing is the sluggish U.S. economy’s bright spot. Home resales are expected to have risen 0.6% in December, data is expected to show. Pending home sales contracts, which lead actual sales by a month or two, hit a 2-1/2 year high in November. The new home sales report on Friday is expected to show a 2.1% increase. The federal debt ceiling negotiations, a nagging worry for investors, seemed to be stuck on the back burner after House Republicans signaled they might support a shortterm extension. Equity markets, which tumbled in 2011 after the last round of talks pushed the United States close to a default, seem not to care much this time around. The CBOE volatility index, a gauge of market anxiety, closed Friday at its lowest since April 2007. “I think the market is getting somewhat desensitized from political drama, given this seems to be happening over and over,” said Destination Wealth Management’s Yoshikami. “It’s something to keep in mind, but I don’t think it’s what you want to base your investing decisions on.”