LISTEN UP
THE
BIG PICTURE
THE TYPICAL ARKANSAN
The picture of a typical Arkansan that emerges from the University of Arkansas’s 14th annual Arkansas Poll of 800 randomly selected adult residents could be called Mr. (or Ms.) No. That is, no to Obama, no to gay marriage, no to in-state tuition for undocumented teen-agers, no to new federal dollars to expand Medicaid and no to legalizing medical marijuana. The most resounding no (60 percent): in-state tuition for high school graduates brought by their undocumented parents to Arkansas as children. Our typical Arkansan is more conservative than he was in 2011. Still, Mr. or Ms. No is likely to approve of Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, by a wide margin, and feels he’s in the same or even better position financially this year than he was last year. Here’s a look at some of the results the poll found:
THE ISSUES
Health care is more important to Arkansans than it was last year. The most important issue facing Arkansas today in 2012 is, like 2011, the economy, but while 70 percent put the economy at the top last year, only 48 percent did this year. The 2nd most important issue in 2012: Health care, at 15 percent of the votes. That’s considerably higher than 2011, when it was 3 percent and third place to education’s second place. The 3rd, 4th and 5th most important issues in 2012: Education (12 percent in 2012, 4 percent in 2011); drugs (11 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2011); immigration (6 percent in 2012, 2 percent in 2011) and taxes (5 percent in 2012, 3 percent in 2011).
APPROVAL OF PUBLIC FIGURES Democrats hold their own.
Gov. Mike Beebe lost a percentage point from 2011 to stand at 72 percent approval in 2012. Sen. John Boozman gained 2 percentage points from 2011 to stand at 42 percent approval. Sen. Mark Pryor gained 5 percentage points from 2011 to stand at 53 percent approval.
FOR PRESIDENT
58 percent surveyed like Republican Mitt Romney, 31 percent like Barack Obama and 11 percent either don’t know or like another candidate.
BALLOT ISSUES
Half-cent tax for roads, yes: 53 percent say yes, 42 percent no, 5 percent say don’t know or decline to answer. Medical marijuana, no: 53 percent say no, 43 percent say yes, 5 percent say don’t know or decline to answer.
MEDICAID
Keep it the same, turn down federal funds to expand: 47 percent. Expand Medicaid: 41 percent. Declined to answer or didn’t know: 12 percent.
GAY MARRIAGE
Arkansas is not trending with the rest of the country, which according to most polls show 51 percent to 54 percent approval. In Arkansas, proponents have lost ground since last year. Gay marriage should be allowed: 15 percent in 2005, 22 percent in 2011, 16 percent in 2012. Gay civil unions should be allowed: 22 percent in 2005, 22 percent in 2011, 20 percent in 2012. No legal recognition for same-sex couples: 54 percent in 2005, 51 percent in 2011, 57 percent in 2012.
PARTY IDEOLOGY, CHANGE OVER A DECADE
Fewer moderates, liberals and Democrats, more Republicans and conservatives. Republican: 30 percent in 2002, 32 percent in 2012. Democrat: 35 percent in 2002, 30 percent in 2012. Liberal: 15 percent in 2002, 12 percent in 2012. Moderate: 39 percent in 2002, 32 percent in 2012. Conservative: 41 percent in 2002, 51 percent in 2012.
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INSIDER, CONT. charter schools and other school “choice” programs in Arkansas. One of the newest is A+ Arkansas, which is holding meetings around the state promoting school choice. The spokesman is Laurie Lee, former wife of Democrat-Gazette columnist Mike Masterson. She achieved public notice first years ago by working to remove books with sexual content from Fayetteville public school libraries. She’s worked since in a variety of political efforts, including for the Koch-financed Americans for Prosperity and lately for a political consulting firm headed by a former director of the Arkansas Republican Party. Lee’s recent messaging has included repetition of the idea that Arkansas is doing poorly in public education. She has taken aim squarely at Gov. Mike Beebe’s advertising for the Democratic Party and its candidates that touts an Education Week evaluation placing Arkansas No. 5 in the country in a ranking based on six education categories, from policy to performance. (Her group claims to be nonpartisan. Any attack on a Democratic talking point during the election season is purely coincidental, onlookers are supposed to believe, even if the Republican Party is committed to the Walton/Murphy/Stephens/Hussman “education reform” agenda.) Lee wrote in a recent e-mail: “Some politicians don’t want you to know that Arkansas’ schools are in crisis. They are using this report to claim that Arkansas’ schools rank 5th in the country — but 5th in what? “They don’t want you to know that Arkansas received a “D” in the most important category — K-12 Achievement. We are ranked 33rd in the nation.” Math and reading comprehension apparently aren’t among this “education reform” group’s strong suits. Lee linked to the Education Week study. It clearly listed the categories on which the ranking was based, including the one on K-12 achievement. It also notes that the contributing categories were ranked equally, with none considered “most important.” It’s called averaging. (A 33rd student achievement based on testing, a fact readily acknowledged by the governor, is a number of notches higher than Arkansas’s customary place down near the bottom among the states.) Said a defender of the governor’s efforts: “Ironic that an e-mail decrying our advances in education chooses to ignore basic mathematics.” It’s not the first or last time “reformers” will ignore numbers on school performance. www.arktimes.com
OCTOBER 31, 2012
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